external stability update 2011

More PowerPoint presentations from Cam Sutton

Disconnected? The Oz Real Economy and US debt.

The global markets have held on for a wild ride recently with the increased volatility connected to the ongoing US debt concerns. Despite the last minute deal that was passed in the US Congress the move by Standard & Poor to downgrade the US government's ability to repay debt to AA+ has triggered an incredible amount of volatility. (see causes for more)
In Australia the fundamentals remain good however the financial marketplace has fallen with the ASX declining 20% since April. The report card of 4.9% unemployment, 3.6% inflation, high business investment in the resource sector and record of export prices compared to import prices (terms of trade) indicates a strong economy. The last quarter did have negative growth (however this was in comparison to the previous quarter) which added to the low retail sales (50 year low) has meant the concern and fear from consumers has become self perpetuating.

In Australia this means that the more people are fearful of the economy the worse the problem will become. As recognised by Chris Richardson of Access Economics

" People always think the markets and economies are the same thing. Markets are reasonable economic forecasters, but they are not economies" .

There are a number of factors which might in future impact upon the real economy of jobs, wages and living standards.

• Firstly the main result of the fall in the ASX will be felt by people about to retire regarding the fall in their superannuations savings.


• The slowdown in the global economy may mean that government policy is needed to assist consumption as exports slow down and domestic spending also slowing down.


• Thus the planned 2012/13 Budger surplus may be delayed.
  


• The RBA may need to drastically loosen monetaary policy. This is linked to the new found stability of the A$. In 2008 when the GFC hit the $A was considered a risky speculative prospect and dropped to 60cents from almost $1US. This time it has falled from $1.11 to a low of 99 cents. The result of this change in perceptions about the Australian currency is that exports remain costly and thus manufacturers, plus other service sectors have high costs and this will mean that interest rates will need to be dramatically cut to prevent the $A becoming an anchor on the economy. (see Help and hinderance for more)
  

Human Rights Assessment

Everyday we see horrific news from around the world where people's basic rights as human beings are taken away from them. A sample at present would include Gaddafi in Libya attempting to kill his own people, no freedom of speech or ability to practice religion in China, civil war in the Ivory Coast, people being held without charge in the United States and in Europe and Australia there is the poor treatment of refugees. By the way if you are interested in Libya or even want to research an issue another good source of information is Al-Jezeera - English.

In order to be able to take action and be aware of your rights the Legal Studies syllabus requires that you complete a case study on a recent Human Rights issue.

The best place to start is the Legal Studies textbook which will give you an overview of a number of case studies and how an evalaution is conducted.

Then I suggest you go to Human Rights Watch (an NGO which focuses the world's attention on human rights violations in order to give a voice to oppressed people and make the oppressors accountable for their crimes.) This site will allow you to choose an issue and will also give you an update on the legal and non-legal responses to the violation.

You should also go to the United Nations website. The link here provides you with access to the conventions and international law which is relevant to your assessment. UN instruments.

Remember when you complete your evaluation you need to make a judgement using a criteria. The criteria is based on whether the human right is efectively protected. (I believe if you decide that the system does not work you suggest improvements.)

Although PEARE is generally good it might not work - enforceability will definitely be part of equation. Other aspects you might like to think about are- balance of standards between nations- that is are all nations treated equally regarding this right, I have added a copy of the assessment task - Assessment task 3 and some information on the development of Human Rights over time. Other useful links- Coalition to stop Child Soldiers Human trafficking .org Amnesty International list of Human Rights Non Government Organisations

How to be a Happy Economist

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.
The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."
Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."
Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says "What do you want it to equal?"

Economists are thought of as people who bring bad news and that their theories do not represent reality- then why do they have so much power?? The reality is that decisions and future decisions involve choice and every choice involves something that has been forgone. (this is known as opportunity cost in economics) Often this choice involves a political decision and a particular group or region will lose or gain which means that as the politicians have to make a difficult decision - economics is often the reason or the stated reason.

Look at the picture and work out how this relates to Economics (try opportunity cost and choice)

So how do you be a happy economist- well by realising that humans are irrational and accepting that despite all the ideas and forecasting that economists are never totally correct.

Welcome JJ Legal punters

Hola JJ Students (and Westies who might still be out there), this is my blog that I have especially set up for my Year 12 students. The aim is that I can provide more detailed information that may be beyond the time contraints of a normal class time, yet the information will update and enhance the textbook to provide additional stuff.
At the the moment we are looking at the Criminal Trial Process which in particular hits the role of the court, court personel and the use of defences.

To the right of this blog I have a number of key links- the one which I commonly refer to is the Legal Information Access Centre which is run through the State Library of NSW. It has a section especially set up for NSW HSC Legal Students which includes a Crime Library (which consists of 50 important cases) and also a news blog which highlights information in the news for you. Think of it as someone summarising the news related to Legal Studies - yes they are doing it for you, for free.

There are two issues which are raised in the news blog- The purpose of the Coroner's Court and the rules of giving evidence. It is important to note that the news blog references two cases, it is however the underlying legal issue that is vital for students. The cases and stories are interesting however there is no point knowing the details of the Brimble case unless you relate it to the fact that the Coroner's court decided a different verdict to the Supreme Court. The Coroner who investigates suspucious deaths decided that a man should face charges of manslaughter and supply of drugs which led to Mrs Brimble dying. However a jury failed to find a verdict and the police dropped the manslaughter charge. The man then pleaded guilty to drug supply and the judge allowed him to walk free with no punishment.

Why - well two answers. The concept of justice is different for different people (that is the judge and the jury vs Mrs Brimble's family). Secondly a case in the criminal courts (not the Coroner's court) must be proved beyond reasonable doubt which is very difficult and the Coroner's Court does not have jurisdiction to decide guilt and punishment.

Crime and the Law

Hola Legal eagles,
thought I would set up a blog for your reading and introductory information. Firstly as I have already referred you towards the State Library has a couple of links that are especially set up for your research. I have made links to the Legal Information Information Centre and Lawlink in the legal links to the right of this post.
In addition if you are interested- the main underlying Act of NSW Parliament is the Crimes Act 1900 (NSW) which is constantly being updated. Interestingly the definition of murder (see section 18) as defined in NSW does not have to always involved intention, it can involve 'reckless indifference to life'. See if you can explain the difference between deliberate intent and reckless indifference?
The last three weeks in the SMH there has been a series of interviews and feature articles on the legal system. As it is this has meant a concentration on the criminal justice system as that impacts upon all of us. Today the Director of Public Prosecutions whose job it is to prosecute for the crown (society) , the office also appeals cases where the verdict is not in the interests of society. Today the Director Nicholas Cowdrey suggested that certain rights of the accused should be modified e.g the right to silence and the inability to inform the jury that the person has been previously convicted. What do you think about either of these issues?

Au$$ie Dollar impacts and thoughts

For the first time since the Australian dollar floated in 1983 the $A has hit parity- that is it was 1 to 1 with the US $ even if it was for a relative short time. As I write this the $A buys 98.77 cents and as is the nature of our currency the volatility has meant that it will continue to fluctuate.
An interesting point for the impacts of the high dollar which has been hovering in the 99 cent bracket is the whilst the theory states that an appreciation is negative for growth and future growth (see page 132 of Dixon to update yourself) the reality is whilst the economy is booming then the appreciation will actually be good as it will mean the excessive growth will be slowed (or smoothed out) and thus there is less need for macroeconomic policy action.
For a good summary of the Aussie dollar see 'Why our econocrats reckon the high dollar is a good thing'

Before I leave you should check out the latest figures that are available.